NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend 2019
Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends, so glad you could attend…come inside, come inside.
With four games and four markets ready to for this weekend we have some quick advice for both new and more experienced traders. After a full season of open markets there are clear trends with some teams and those should be on the top of everyones mind when they are deciding when and how to enter the market and buy certain teams.
Game 1: IND vs KC
Luck + Reich vs. Mahomes + Reid
It’s hard to look at the Colts and not get excited about the run they have been on. It’s also hard not to look at the Chiefs and get nervous about the lack of big game wins this season. As always, let the market dictate your choices and let the other traders take pre game ideas into their trading. Wait and see where the market wants to go and what team seems to have the public. There will definitely be some value and over buying early so this game is a perfect spot to watch and then trade.
Game 2: DAL vs. LAR
Cowboys in LA?
Wide market open will have a lot to say how this trades and where the kick off money flows. Keep close attention on how the Cowboys trade before any big game event. This could be a great place to hold Cowboys and look to sell once they have some success with the expectation that shares will likely become over bought very quickly. That being said it will be interesting to see how the Rams trade if the Cowboys jump out early. With these wide spreads its important to always watch the $50 line and understand when the market changes its favorite.
Game 3: LAC vs. NEP
Rivers vs. Brady
Chargers on the road (again on east coast) in New England taking on the King and his court. Of all of the games this one has the chance to have the most volatility. Don’t short the VIX in this one! Both teams have capacity to be both amazing and awful all in the same game. We can see both teams winning, both teams blowing the other out, and both teams putting up 40 in a wild back and forth game. Market is opening relatively wide given the Chargers travel but be ready to buy either team if it hits $35 will the hope of a shoot out and a nice $40-$70 range in the first half.
Game 4: PHI vs. NO
Nick Foles vs. Drew Brees
Destiny is waiting for one of these two. The biggest take away for this game is where does the market take Saints shares? We’ve traded a lot of Saints games and the market is always very late in selling off when the Saints have played poorly. If you are looking to trade this game be cautious and aware that if the Eagles come out and look good there is likely value to be made in selling the Saints early. That being said, Brees and the Saints can score at will and the market can probably rip up faster than it trades down.
As always, stay safe out there and good luck to the players!