Patriots Make Statement Against Green Bay

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots “NE” won their sixth straight game on Sunday night defeating Aaron Rodgers and the Greenbay Packers “GB”.

The game itself was set up for a huge fourth quarter after the back and forth in the first three but market momentum and a couple of kill plays decided the contest early and didn’t leave much value in a Rodgers come back.

NE controlled the first half with the market pushing NE shares as high as $65, just below the IPO pricing, to start the game. Each NE score was met by Rodgers and GB keeping pace and a tight trading range for most of the game.

The third quarter began to set up the finish for those traders able to identify both GB’s peak and NE’s bottom. Jimmy Graham’s TD pushed GB shares ahead of NE for the first and last time of the game. Many traders took this opportunity to dump GB shares while watching Brady and NE drive and ultimately score the go ahead James White TD.

GB sellers rushed in after Rodgers and the GB offense didn’t have any success moving the ball and the momentum drove shares lower with each missed third down. You can see in the chart the trend of confidence on the NE side driving the field and the price north of $70 before the final Josh Gordon TD. GB shares found little support from the market and only those few willing to speculate on an GB comeback were left holding shares as the game wound itself down.

The biggest take away is how fast the market is ready to define an outcome and trading against that trend can leave you and your P&L behind with little room to improve without turning on the risk. When reviewing the chart you can see that NE traded from $45 to north of $75 in 15 minutes with little to no pullback. Sure we’ve seen Rodgers lead GB back over and over again but in the face of a strong second half trend pushing shares lower there was little reason to believe that NE was going to let that happen. The market was defining the outcome and those who looked to the game for life were left for dead.