How Valuable are Outs in an MLB Game? World Series Game 3

Game 3 of the World Series

18 Innings

7 Hours 20 Mins

Nobody will forget the tension, back and forth, incredible throws or the Max Muncy walk off home run after they woke up the next day. Few better games give us a better market to call out and discuss the value of outs in a MLB game.

54 outs in a standard game and none are created equal. When we look at the Game 3 of the 2018 World Series we have a game with almost 108 total outs — and each of them with the power to move the market in a material way.

In future posts we will examine the math behind how valuable each out is and will eventually build out a series to discuss outs and base runners to outline how we would expect a rational market to react throughout a baseball game.

For Game 3; we were able to see market swings with every out BOS gave up in their half of the inning. Those BOS traders would regularly sell a good portion of their BOS shares with two outs and move into LAD in hopes of front running the third out and getting some value on anything positive in the bottom of the inning.

Swings of 5-15% were common as BOS and LAD ended their respective innings and traders able to find the rhythm of the trends were able to take advantage for most of the extra innings, especially being rewarded in the 13th innings which saw BOS trade as high as $85 and then trade down to $15 when LAD rallied in their half of the 13th. Those traders (who were awake) in those trades got rewarded with huge ROI on those positions and saw themselves at the top of the leaderboard.

A fair rule for trading based on outs; the later in a close game you are the more valuable each out becomes and you should be looking to trade the buying and selling the market does on both outs as well as actual game events. Aggressive traders will need to balance how and when they enter trades but over the long run should be able to profit if they are properly identifying trends and moments of market inconsistency.

Photo Credit: NYT